Much like an earthquake with loads of aftershocks, SOFLA's persistent cold weather continues to take a toll on results-per-unit-of fishing effort. Since I began flats fishing in the early 60's, I cannot recall hearing the glowing reports of black drum, sheephead, and small seatrout like I do presently. These reports reflect what is hitting and what is not...but ultimately might be indicative of lowered snook and tarpon stocks in Florida's shallow as well as suppressed fish movements because of the persistent cold water.
I believe the reason that my 70-pound tarpon struck my offering despite it being surrounded by a good number of smaller fish is that big fish have more heat retention with larger body mass. This is the reason we find bigger bonefish on the flats during winter more frequently- it's simply that smaller bonefish drop off the flats for warmer water. It is not that big bonefish like wintertime- they simply can handle it better.
This time last year, tarpon were already well into western Biscayne Bay. That is not the case this year compared to last year. My guess is that this year's extreme cold will take a measurable toll on inshore catch results well after it stays warm. I hope I'm wrong.
Jan
www.fishingfloridasflats.com
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